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amount of oil

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i heard on channel 4 news that an independent group thinks that it is more like 90,000 barrels of crude a day. They said that they don't know where bp and the gov were getting this estimate of 5000 barrels a day.
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   bigjim
Looking at the video of the pipe leaking it looks like at least one barrel of oil(42 gallons) leaking every second or at least one every two seconds. Lets do the math if one barrel leaks every second we're looking at over 86000 barrels a day, but lets be a little more reasonable. A 21 inch pipe gushing may only produce 42 gallons every two seconds, 30 barrels every minute times 60 minutes times 24 hours equals a little better than 43000 barrels of oil a day. I think they think were idiots.
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It doesn\'t look to me like it is a barrel a second... honestly.

The MMS who came up with the 5000 barrels a day estimate looked good to BP who never have done or released any analysis of how much they think is coming out.

The methodology used to get the 5000 barrels per day was a method not designed for measuring such large volumes. Then again there are a bunch of oil guys much smarter than me that also put in their two cents and didn\'t believe the leak was nearly as large as the 70,000 barrels a day estimates either.

There are a lot of unknowns that the estimates has to simply guess at when they made their guess. One, and only one of those unknowns was how much gas was mixed in with the oil. BP now says it is about 50/50.

When it is all said and done we might never know the answer. But how much is leaked is really not important to me anyway. How much makes it to shore, where it hits, how long it stays in the enviroment etc etc, that is what really matters.

I would rather have a larger leak where most of it stays offshore and evaporates and degrades versus a much smaller leak that puts crude oil directly in the marshes.

It sucks that this happened in deep water because that makes it harder to fix.... yet had it happened seven miles from Grand Isle or Marsh Island it would have been easier to fix but we might have actually had more damage to the marshes. It is all about tradeoffs. So far we have been pretty luck considering how bad it could have been.

When I can still see pictures of sea turtles making the news about the oil spill occasionally when it has been shown that they are dying of something else like a virus and started dying before the explosion then you know it isn\'t nearly as bad as it could be.

Think back to the first week. Think of all the visions you had of much of the gulf coast having crude oil lapping at the shore, 1000\'s of acres of marsh destroyed by the oil being measure in square mile after square mile, 1000\'s of birds dying, talk of putting the Pelican back on the endangered species list, massive fish kills, and on and on.

The situation certainly isn\'t good but it certainly isn\'t the Armageddon that was so often predicted. You still planing on saling you boat... your camp because of this? The fish are freaking tearing it up right now. So get out and fish.
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Bigjim, I have to agree with Mike, it's not really how much oil is leaking but how to keep it out of the wet lands and reefs. I understand your math but the flaw in it is the 21' pipe (Riser)is not the one leaking oil it's the 6' drill pipe inside the well Riser.
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Twice as much oil as was spilled in the Exxon Valdez spill leaks into the Gulf of Mexico each year naturally through natural oil seeps in the sea floor, but you don't hear about that because it isn't doing any damage. It isn't the amount that is the most important thing it is the damage.
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http://www.akmining.com/cart/kep185h.htm

The pump in the link above has a 2.5 inch intake and is advertised to pump out 300 gallons a minute. I know they may be stretching it so lets say 200 gallons a minute.
200x60 minutes in an hour = 12,000 gallons per hour
12,000x24 hours a day = 288,000 gallons per day

288,000/42= 6,857 barrels a day.

Is my math flawed? Remember that is with a 2.5 inch intake not 6.5 and I know that well is pushing alot more PSI.
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Lone Shark, you want to compare a high volume centrifugal pump, pumping low desity water to Heavy crude.....Please
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I think the difference in the PSI more than makes up for the density.
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OK, you say 6 inch pipe... but how big is the pipe after the shear rams tried to close it at the joint of one of the sticks? Opening there is could be anywhere from 100% open on down to almost 0% open. You and I just don't know, so you can't figure out the flow this way.
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Please don't think I am trying to get an accurate number of barrels a day from looking at what the pump pushes. I am just showing Mike and the others that a heck of alot of fluid can travel through a 6.5 inch pipe.
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Lone Shark, if pressure is the deciding factor and density and orafice size are irrelevent then pinching the pipe would have increased pressure and volume. I don't buy that sorry.
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   LUCKY-MAN
i think we are all smart enough to know that they are not going to tell us the truth about how much is leaking if they say 5,000 its probably atleast 15,000 to 20,000 thats the reason for the chemical dispersants if we cant see it then it must not be there it sure aint to help becouse causing it to sink below the surface makes it next to impossable to clean it passes under the hard boom and after being treated with the chemical dispersants the soft boom wont absorb it anymore and how are we going to clean the oil off of the bottom after they cap it and the oil that can be seen is cleaned they will say the job is doon but we will still have oil on our bottom
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   LUCKY-MAN
the 12:00 news just said that bp confirmed there mile long tube is capturing 210,000 gallons of oil a day the same amount the were telling all of us was leaking this is much worse than than will every tell us they treat us like we are stupid and the bad thing is some people will still belive them
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...it's called low-ball'n 'da flow and value of the find...it might be bigger than the Gulf ???...it depends on Rochester the meter reader mess'n w/ LeRoy 'da tax man !!!...after it's captured ???...cheers
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